The AM Brief, Monday January 19, 2026 Part 2
* "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
Martin Luther King Jr.
Good morning,
It’s 8am in Miami and here is a weekly recap of events that caught my eye. Part 2:
Following the January 3, 2026, capture of Nicolás Maduro, Miami's Cuban American community anticipates a similar collapse for the Díaz-Canel regime. Trump has since severed all Venezuelan oil and funds to the island, warning Havana to "make a deal" before its economy, already crippled by blackouts, fails entirely. While expatriates celebrate this pressure, they warn that decades of systemic repression and a deeply entrenched military apparatus may require more than economic isolation to dismantle. The loss of 35,000 barrels of daily subsidized oil has left the Cuban government scrambling for support from Russia or China. However, with U.S. forces actively interdicting tankers in the Caribbean, the regime's ability to "limp along" has reached a breaking point. Investors and diplomats now view the island as a high risk zone for a chaotic collapse, which could trigger a massive new wave of migration toward a now-closed U.S. border.
Iran is facing its most significant unrest since 1979, driven by economic collapse and record inflation. While President Trump recently thanked Tehran for halting 800 scheduled executions, the Iranian judiciary has since signaled that "severest punishments" remain on the table for those charged with "Moharebeh" (enmity against God). In a recent interview, Trump called for "new leadership" in Iran, warning of U.S. intervention if mass killings resume. Iranian officials, however, blame Trump for the casualties and warn that any attack would spark an "all-out war." Trump has explicitly stated that the execution of protesters is a trigger for military action. This has created a tense "wait-and-see" dynamic where even a single hanging could shift U.S. policy from sanctions to strikes. The new 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran is specifically designed to force China, Iran’s largest trade partner to withdraw support, further crippling the regime's ability to fund its security forces.
After 25 years of negotiations, the EU and Mercosur, comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, signed a historic trade deal on January 17, 2026. The pact, covering 25% of global GDP, will eliminate 90% of tariffs, benefiting EU cars and wine and Mercosur beef and soy. While a qualified majority of EU states approved it on January 9, France, Poland, and Austria remain opposed. The European Parliament begins ratification today, as Mercosur legislatures prepare their own votes.
Sources : Yahoo Finance,Reuters,Bloomberg,CNBC,Market Watch,Barron’s , Business Insider, X
Thank you for reading
Live your best life,
AL Maulini
* "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
Martin Luther King Jr.
Good morning,
It’s 8am in Miami and here is a weekly recap of events that caught my eye. Part 2:
Following the January 3, 2026, capture of Nicolás Maduro, Miami's Cuban American community anticipates a similar collapse for the Díaz-Canel regime. Trump has since severed all Venezuelan oil and funds to the island, warning Havana to "make a deal" before its economy, already crippled by blackouts, fails entirely. While expatriates celebrate this pressure, they warn that decades of systemic repression and a deeply entrenched military apparatus may require more than economic isolation to dismantle. The loss of 35,000 barrels of daily subsidized oil has left the Cuban government scrambling for support from Russia or China. However, with U.S. forces actively interdicting tankers in the Caribbean, the regime's ability to "limp along" has reached a breaking point. Investors and diplomats now view the island as a high risk zone for a chaotic collapse, which could trigger a massive new wave of migration toward a now-closed U.S. border.
Iran is facing its most significant unrest since 1979, driven by economic collapse and record inflation. While President Trump recently thanked Tehran for halting 800 scheduled executions, the Iranian judiciary has since signaled that "severest punishments" remain on the table for those charged with "Moharebeh" (enmity against God). In a recent interview, Trump called for "new leadership" in Iran, warning of U.S. intervention if mass killings resume. Iranian officials, however, blame Trump for the casualties and warn that any attack would spark an "all-out war." Trump has explicitly stated that the execution of protesters is a trigger for military action. This has created a tense "wait-and-see" dynamic where even a single hanging could shift U.S. policy from sanctions to strikes. The new 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran is specifically designed to force China, Iran’s largest trade partner to withdraw support, further crippling the regime's ability to fund its security forces.
After 25 years of negotiations, the EU and Mercosur, comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, signed a historic trade deal on January 17, 2026. The pact, covering 25% of global GDP, will eliminate 90% of tariffs, benefiting EU cars and wine and Mercosur beef and soy. While a qualified majority of EU states approved it on January 9, France, Poland, and Austria remain opposed. The European Parliament begins ratification today, as Mercosur legislatures prepare their own votes.
Sources : Yahoo Finance,Reuters,Bloomberg,CNBC,Market Watch,Barron’s , Business Insider, X
Thank you for reading
Live your best life,
AL Maulini
